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RB Leipzig vs Mainz

Fri 04 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

RB Leipzig win: 57.5%

Draw: 21.9%

Mainz win: 20.7%

Predicted: RB Leipzig

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.81

More corners: RB Leipzig (61.4% home / 38.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: RB Leipzig

Yes

Probability RB Leipzig wins or draws: 69.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result RB Leipzig Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 22%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (69.0% model probability) High

Corners RB Leipzig (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat RB Leipzig win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.